June ADP Report Shows Sharp Decline in Private-Sector Jobs, Fueling Rate Cut Speculation

June's ADP employment report delivered a stark divergence from expectations, with private payrolls shedding 33,000 jobs against forecasts of a 100,000 gain. This marks the first negative reading since March 2023 and extends a downward trajectory that began in March 2025.

Equities initially stumbled on the news before reversing losses after former President Trump announced a US-Vietnam trade deal. The development spurred Optimism for additional agreements ahead of the July 9 deadline, demonstrating how geopolitical catalysts can override weak economic data.

Market-implied odds of a 25 basis point Fed rate cut this month climbed to 23.8%, reflecting growing expectations for policy accommodation. All eyes now turn to tomorrow's BLS report, where consensus expects 110,000 nonfarm payroll additions and a slight uptick in unemployment to 4.3%.